Abstract: This paper identified that there were two aspects of the effects on industrial pollution production by technological progress: the scale effect which promotes economic scale and the intensity effect which reduces pollution generation intensity. Based on the Malmquist index, a theoretical model was built to analyze the two effects, and an empirical study on the industrial SO₂ production changes during 2006 and 2009 due to the technical progress was carried out. The results indicate that technical progress reduced the amount of industrial SO₂ production. Technical progress reduced the amount of industrial SO₂ production in 2006?2007 and 2008?2009, while it was the opposite situation in 2007?2008. The scale effect was more significant in the eastern region, while the intensity effect was more significant in the central region.

Key words: technical progress, scale effect, intensity effect, Malmquist index, industrial pollution

摘要： 考察技术进步对污染产生的综合影响。对技术进步影响生产活动中污染产生途径进行理论分析, 梳理出通过增加经济规模途径的规模效应和通过降低污染产生强度途径的强度效应, 构建了基于Malmquist指数的数量模型, 综合分析这两种效应, 并对我国2006?2009年工业SO₂产生量的技术进步影响进行实证分析。结 果表明: 总体而言, 2006?2009年全国工业SO₂产生量的影响因素中技术进步的强度效应高于规模效应; 时间上看, 2006?2007年和2008?2009年技术进步的规模效应高于强度效应, 而2007?2008年技术进步的作用则相反; 空间上看, 东部地区技术进步的规模效应更突出, 而中部地区技术进步的强度效应更显著。

关键词: 技术进步, 规模效应, 强度效应, Malmquist指数, 工业污染