Abstract: Based on the theory of Environmental Carrying Capacity and the systematic analysis of social economy and environment in Dianchi Watershed, the authors establish Dianchi watershed social economy and environment system optimization model (DSEESOM), taking population and economy as the maximum objective function while natural resources and environmental capacity as constraints. Through DSEESOM, the high, median and low planning schemes under two scenarios considering whether take water transfer project of Niulan River or not, are compared and evaluated, which indicate that the carrying capacity of population and economy will be improved after water transfer; meanwhile the differences of the carrying capacity under median and low planning scheme are minor. Therefore, the result explains the phenomenon from the perspective of sensitivity range, and then the median planning scheme is taken as the best scheme for the integrated management of Dianchi watershed.

Key words: Dianchi watershed, social economy, optimization model, scenario analysis

摘要： 以环境承载力为理论依据, 在滇池流域社会经济环境系统分析的基础上, 建立了在自然资源和环境容量约束下以滇池流域内人口和经济最大化为目标的滇池流域社会经济环境系统优化模型, 并分别对是否考虑从牛栏江调水这两种情景下的高、中、低3种规划方案进行比较和评估, 发现调水对滇池流域人口和经济的承载能力有较大提高, 而同一情景下中、低两种规划方案对滇池流域人口和经济的承载能力差异很小。为此, 从灵敏度范围的角度对这一现象进行解释, 从而优选出中方案作为滇池流域综合管理最佳的规划方案。

关键词: 滇池流域, 社会经济, 优化模型, 情景分析