Abstract: Using a scoring method presented by Mecikalski et al, which uses eight indicators to forecast convective initiation (CI), a convective weather event in Beijing-Tianjin region was analyzed in the experiment based on the MTSAT satellite data. The experiment results show that after necessary modifications of the indicator thresholds, the above method is feasible to forecast CI ~30 min in advance in Beijing-Tianjin region. The principle component analysis (PCA) method also verifies that every indicator among the eight indicators plays an important role in forecasting CI.

Key words: convective weather, convective initiation (CI), principle component analysis (PCA)

摘要： 基于日本MTSAT卫星数据, 在Mecikalski等提出的8个指标计分统计方法的基础上, 对京津地区的一次强对流天气过程的初生(CI)进行预警试验, 并根据试验结果修改了部分指标的阈值。试验表明, 经过阈值的适当修改, 该方法可以有效地对京津地区的强对流初生提前30分钟进行预警。另外, 使用主成分分析(PCA)方法, 验证了8个指标中的每一个指标对于预警CI都有重要的作用。

关键词: 强对流天气, 对流初生, 主成份分析(PCA)