Abstract: In order to assess the spatial pattern of provincial environmental risk in China, this paper constructs an index system composed of danger index and vulnerability index. Data used for comprehensive evaluation is a three-dimension system, including evaluation obj ect, index and time. Accordingly, this paper induces time ordered weighted averaging (TOWA) operator and mathematical programming models to calculate the time weights. Through this method, environmental risk in recent 5 years was assessed and the spatial pattern of environmental risk was shown. Suggestions on risk alleviation and management were also provided on the basis of cluster analysis.

Key words: environmental risk, dynamic comprehensive evaluation, TWOA, cluster analysis, danger, vulnerability

摘要： 为评估我国省域环境风险状况, 构建了由危险性指标和脆弱性指标两大类指标组成的区域环境风险综合评价指标体系。区域环境风险综合评价是由评价区域、指标和时间构成的三维时序立体数据的动态综合评价问题,时间序列中对象的属性不断变化, 需要对各环节实行动态化处理。为此, 引入时序加权平均算子(TOWA), 确定时间权向量, 实现了对我国省级行政区域近 5 年环境风险状况的动态综合评价, 并依据评价结果将评价区域划分为高、中、低风险区, 展示了我国的环境风险空间分布特点; 通过聚类分析方法解析各区域具体特点, 为区域环境风险削减提供依据。

关键词: 环境风险, 动态综合评价, TWOA, 聚类, 危险性, 脆弱性