Abstract: Through analysis of several strong earthquakes in Haicheng, Tangshan and Wenchuan, the author points out that the uncertainty of earthquake forcast lies in the complexity of precursors which are difficult to detect and identify. Single small earthquake precursor does not provide universal forecast meaning. However, comprehensive analysis on a variety of precursors may be of great significance for the short-term earthquake forecast. Further analysis demonstrates, the selection of observation instruments can be more important. Compared with common ground observation for obtaining estimative information of earthquake precursors, the space remote sensing observation for obtaining collateral information of the seismogenic zone, and microwave remote sensing observation in particular, provides many advantages, including big visual field, quick prescription , strong synchronismand working in all weather. Under the condition of using bean switching method, the microwave remote sensing observation can discover the change of microwave radiation fromthe seismogenic zone with very high sensitivity. Such observation may provide more important meaning for short-term earthquake forecast. Finally, based on the matter information theory, the feasibility and rationality of microwave remote sensing observation were discussed.

Key words: earthquake forecast, foreboding information, microwaveremote sensing, beamswitching method, seismogenic zone, matter infor mation theory

摘要： 通过发生在海城、唐山和汶川的强烈地震事件的分析, 指出地震预报的不确定性问题, 主要在于前兆现象的复杂多样性及其探测和识别的困难。单一的小震前兆并不具有普遍的预报意义。如果根据多种前兆现象进行综合判断, 则可能对短期的地震预报具有重要意义。进一步分析表明, 地震前兆观测手段的选择可能更加重要。同获取地震前兆实体信息的地面常规观测手段相比, 获取孕震区虚体(光子、电磁波) 信息的空间遥感观测手段, 特别是其中的微波遥感观测手段, 具有视野大、时效快、同步性强以及全天候工作等诸多优点。在采用波束开关方法的条件下, 微波遥感观测能以很高的灵敏度发现大气以下孕震区微波辐射 的变化, 对于做出短期的临震预报可能更有意义。最后, 以物信论的观点探讨了微波遥感观测方法的可行性和合理性等问题。

关键词: 地震预报, 前兆信息, 微波遥感, 波束开关法, 孕震区, 物信论