Abstract: This paper introduces the wavelet tool and 4 indexes to quantify the temporal characteristics of tourist flows. Based on the monthly visitor data from 1994-2006 and daily visitor data from 2003-2006 which were mainly collected through JDS (Jiuzhaigou digital system), the multi-time scales characteristics of tourist flow along the time series were analyzed by using the morlet wavelet transform. The complex structure of multi-time scales are exhibited, also, the periodic oscillation and the main periods of tourist flows at different scales are identified through Wavelet Toolbox in MATALAB 7.3. The results show that 1) during 1994-2006, the number of tourists increased rapidly in the way of cubic function and curve of tourists had apparently 3 peaks in July-August, October, and May respectively; 2) at the month scale, the trend of tourist fluctuation decreased overtime; 3) in the past 13 years, there was an approximately 1 year period in the tourist time series. Furthermore, 50-70 days was another period in 2003-2006. After applying wavelet tool to analysis tourist flows, this article argues that the localization characteristics of time-frequency for wavelet analysis can effectively demonstrate the detailed structures of tourist flows. Wavelet is a promising method to analyze temporal characteristics of tourist flows, and the findings can provide a scientific guideline for adjusting and controlling tourist flows.

Key words: tourist flows, temporal characteristics, wavelet analysis, Jiuzhaigou

摘要： 引入4种指数和小波分析工具定量探讨九寨沟旅游流的时间特性。以morlet母小波对1994-2006年逐月和2003-2006年逐日两个旅游流时间序列实施小波变换，揭示了九寨沟旅游流多时间尺度的复杂结构，分析了不同尺度下的周期性。结果表明：在年际尺度上，旅游流呈现出三次函数增长方式，其年内分布为明显的三峰型；在月际尺度上，旅游流季节波动特性逐步变小；近13年来，旅游流存在1年左右的变动周期，尤在近4年表现强烈，此外该时段还在50～70天小尺度上存在周期现象。小波分析的时频局部化特性可以展现旅游流时间序列的精细结构，为分析旅游流时间特性提供了一种新途径。

关键词: 游客流, 时间特性, 小波分析, 九寨沟