Abstract: It remains a matter for considerable debate whether developing countries can achieve a win-win situation for both economic growth and environmental improvement. The authors explore the possibility of a win-win situation from theoretical and practical standpoints. In a theoretical study, the authors introduce the concept of “eco-efficiency" and transform the IPAT equation into a new pattern, “the ISE equation", in which environmental impact equals the service provided by a specific system divided by the eco-efficiency of the system. The authors then focus on an economic system and quantify the relationship between environmental impacts and economic growth by assuming exponential growth in the economy and in eco-efficiency. The results indicated that environmental impacts can only be reduced if eco-efficiency grows at a faster rate than the economy. In a practical study, the authors examine the environmental impacts of wastewater, waste gases, solid wastes, and several pollutants from 1992 to 2002, and analyze the relationships between these industrial environmental impacts and industrial economic growth in China. The results indicated that, except for the total volume of industrial waste gases, all other environmental efficiencies have been increasing faster than the corresponding gross industrial product. Consequently, the net environmental impacts of these factors have been decreasing despite rapid industrial economic growth. This indicates that the impact of this growth on China's environment has been improving during the study period.

Key words: environmental impact, economic growth, eco-efficiency, the ISE equation, industrial waste, environmental improvement

摘要： 发展中国家能否获得经济增长和环境改善的双赢一直存在争议。作者从理论和实践上探讨实现这一双赢的可能性。理论研究中，通过引入“生态效率”这一概念，将“IPAT”方程转化成新的“ISE方程”形式。在ISE方程中，某一系统的环境负荷等于该系统所提供的服务量除以该系统的生态效率。针对经济系统，假定经济和生态效率指数增长，量化了环境负荷与经济增长的关系。结果表明，只有在生态效率的增长速度高于经济增长速度的情况下，环境负荷才可能下降。应用中，分析了中国1992-2002年间，工业经济增长与工业废水、废气、固体废物和其他几种污染物等环境负荷的定量关系。结果表明，除了工业废气排放总量这项指标外，其他各项相关的环境效率均比同期内的工业增加值的增长更快，从而在工业经济增长情况下，这些方面的环境负荷仍然持续下降。表明研究期间内，中国工业经济增长与环境的关系正在逐步改善。

关键词: 经济增长, 生态效率, ISE方程, 工业废物, 环境改善, 环境负荷