An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations

Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

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An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations

SHAO Mingxuan^{1, 2}, WU Qingli¹, LIU Fenghui³, WEI Jianming³, DOU Yiwen³, XU Fang⁴

¹State Key Lab for Severe Storm Research, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Physical School, Peking University, Beijing, 100871; ²Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, 100089; ³Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing, 100089; ⁴China Patent Information Center, State Intellectual Property Office, Beijing, 100088

Received:2002-12-17 Online:2004-01-20 Published:2004-01-20

分站客观降水预报试验

邵明轩^1,2, 吴庆丽¹, 刘凤辉³, 魏建明³, 窦以文³, 徐芳⁴

¹北京大学物理学院大气科学系，暴雨监测和预测国家重点实验室，北京，100871；²北京城市气象研究所，北京，100089；³北京市气象局，北京，100089；⁴国家知识产权局，中国专利信息中心，北京，100088

Abstract

Abstract: The forecast of precipitation at station is usually as the forecast of a discontinuous variable. In this paper, the forecast is transformed into a forecast of a continuous variable—possibility function of precipitation (PFP). PFP is determined by observations. And a new method, dynamic combination equation of nonlinear multi-factors (DCENMF), has been developed to forecast precipitation at station by forecasting PFP. Based on this approach, experimental objective forecasts of precipitation at stations were made in Beijing district from July to December 1998. Precipitation forecasts for 15 stations are assessed by the critical success index (CSI). The mean CSI is 0.40 for the night, and 0.33 for the next day.

Key words: possibility function of precipitation, nonlinear multi-factors, dynamic combination equation, forecasting precipitation at station

摘要： 将逐时段定点降水非连续量的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。发展了一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法，通过对降水可能函数的预报，作客观分站降水预报。1998年在北京地区15站进行了为期半年的预报试验，当天夜间的降水预报平均CSI得分为0.40，第二天白天平均CSI得分为0.40。

关键词: 降水可能函数, 非线性多因子, 动态方程, 分站降水预报

CLC Number:

SHAO Mingxuan,WU Qingli,LIU Fenghui,WEI Jianming,DOU Yiwen,XU Fang. An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis.

邵明轩, 吴庆丽, 刘凤辉, 魏建明, 窦以文, 徐芳. 分站客观降水预报试验[J]. 北京大学学报（自然科学版）.

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An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations

分站客观降水预报试验

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