Abstract: The impacts of Tropical Western Pacific Warm Pool on precipitation of China and disasters in China's coastal region have been discussed by using Warm Pool Index. The results show that Warm Pool Area Index is meanful in a certain sense for forecasting precipitation of China, Northern Boundary Index can well forecast precipitation of Yangtze River Valley and other regions of China. Area Index has anti-correlation with the interannual change of occurred numbers of typhoon in coastal region of China, significantly relation with the sea ice disaster after 1950, little relation with the occurrence frequency of sea wave disaster, and regular relation with tsunami.

Key words: tropical western pacific warm pool, precipitation, disaster

摘要： 用暖池指数研究了热带西太平洋暖池对中国降水和沿海自然灾害的影响。结果表明，暖池面积指数对中国降水有一定的预报意义，北界指数对中国长江中下游地区及其他一些地区的降水具有很好的预报性，面积指数与中国沿海台风次数的年际变化呈负相关关系，与1950年以后海冰灾害有明显的相关关系，与灾害性海浪的发生频数关系不大，与海啸的发生有一定的关系。

关键词: 热带西太平洋暖池, 降水, 自然灾害