Abstract:

This study takes the three industries and the internal structure of tertiary industry in ecological conservation development area of Beijing from 2005 to 2012 as the research object, using shift-share analysis method, comprehensively analyses of the development of industry share deviates from the components, structure deviation and competitiveness deviation component, provides some reference for choosing the leading industry in ecological conservation development area and the adjustment of industrial structure. The results shows that the first industry in ecological conservation development area has a certain but small amount competitiveness, cannot effectively promote economic development of the whole area; the second industry growth in ecological conservation development area is slower than the average level in Beijing, and does not have the competitive advantage; the total deviation vector of the third industry presents the obvious rise, and accelerates the development trend, which is the main force of the regional economic development in the future. In potential leading industry selection for districts and counties, Mentougou District takes the culture, sports and entertainment industry, and finance industry as leading industries, Huairou District takes the information transmission, computer services and software industry as the leading industry, Pinggu District takes the culture, sports and entertainment industry as leading industry, in the present stage of the third industry in Miyun County has not meet the requirements of the industry, and the estate industry is the leading industry for Yanqing County. Comprehensive tourism is suitable for the dominant industry of ecological conservation development area, and is also in line with the industry development present situation and future development direction. That can effectively promote regional economic development.

Key words: ecological conservation development area, leading industry, shift-share analysis method, total deviation vector

摘要：

以2005—2012年间的三次产业及第三产业内部产业为分析对象, 运用偏离–份额分析法, 综合分析北京市生态涵养发展区产业发展的份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量, 以期为生态涵养发展区主导产业选择和产业结构调整提供依据, 得到结果如下。1) 生态涵养发展区第一产业具有一定的竞争力, 但总量偏小, 不能有效地带动全区的经济发展; 生态涵养发展区第二产业增长慢于北京市平均水平, 不具备竞争优势; 第三产业总偏离量明显上升, 且有加速发展趋势, 是未来该区域经济发展的主要拉动力量。2) 在各区县潜在主导产业选择方面, 门头沟区以文化、体育和娱乐业及金融业为主导产业, 怀柔区以信息传输、计算机服务和软件业为主导产业, 平谷区以文化、体育和娱乐业为主导产业, 现阶段密云县第三产业中的主导产业尚不明晰, 延庆县的房地产业具有一定优势; 综合性旅游业符合产业发展现状和未来发展方向, 比较适宜作为生态涵养发展区的主导产业。

关键词: 生态涵养发展区, 主导产业, 偏离&ndash, 份额分析法, 总偏离量