北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 671-680.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.037

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领先市场对中国汽车产业新能源技术转型的影响

高鉴1, 童昕1,†, 贺灿飞1,2   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871 2. 北京大学–林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-13 修回日期:2022-09-13 出版日期:2023-07-20 发布日期:2023-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 童昕, E-mail: tongxin(at)urban.pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41731278)和国家自然科学基金中荷国际合作项目(72061137071)资助

Impact of Lead Market on Transition Towards New Energy Technology in Automobile Industry in China

GAO Jian1, TONG Xin1,†, HE Canfei1,2   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2. Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2022-07-13 Revised:2022-09-13 Online:2023-07-20 Published:2023-07-20
  • Contact: TONG Xin, E-mail: tongxin(at)urban.pku.edu.cn

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摘要：

以中国汽车制造业供应链企业为例, 针对领先市场理论假设的企业绿色技术采纳影响因素, 利用二值Logistic回归分析, 分析中国汽车产业在市场、政策和地方产业集群的共同作用下, 向新能源技术转型的机制。研究结果表明: 1) 目标市场是引导企业接纳新能源技术变革极为重要的驱动力, 不同于以往电子等出口导向型产品, 中国汽车产业新能源技术转型过程呈现明显的国内市场导向和引领特征; 2) 国内以环保补贴为代表的需求侧激励政策对当地汽车制造业企业新能源技术转型的作用不可持续, 而以循环经济为代表的供给侧规制政策对汽车制造业新能源技术转型具有更深远的作用; 3) 在技术转型的过程中, 企业对本地传统汽车产业集群的技术依赖性较强, 本地新能源汽车企业之间的协作创新有待加强。未来中国汽车制造业新能源技术转型需要培育新技术本土化的协作创新网络, 并通过循环经济与低碳发展的协同作用为产业技术转型提供持久动力, 塑造中国新能源汽车产业的持续竞争力。

关键词: 新能源汽车, 领先市场, 技术转型, 创新扩散, 产业集群

Abstract:

This paper takes Chinese automobile industry as an example, and analyzes the technological transition towards new energy under the combined effects of market, policy and local cluster. The aim is to study the influencing factors of enterprises’ green technology adoption with a framework based on lead market theory. The results show that target market is an important driving force for enterprises to adopt new energy technology. But unlike the electronics and other export-oriented products, the enterprises of the automobile supply chain is mainly driven by the domestic market. The demand-side incentive policies through subsidies to new energy vehicle buyers are not sustainable, while the supply-side policies, such as the policy targeting close-loop supply chains for circular economy, have long-term effects on the adoption of new energy technology of enterprises. The enterprises are highly dependent on the technology diffusion of local traditional automobile industry clusters, while collaborative innovation among local new energy automobile enterprises needs to be further strengthened. In conclusion, the synergy of circular economy and low carbon development can be achieved through local collaboration within the industrial cluster in building the sustainable competitiveness for Chinese new energy automobile industry.

Key words: new energy vehicle, lead market, technological transition, diffusion of innovation, industrial cluster

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