北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2018, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (6): 1259-1266.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.076

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“资源诅咒”效应及传导机制研究——以中国中部36个资源型城市为例

王嘉懿1,†, 崔娜娜2   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871
    2. 北京大学政府管理学院, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-29 修回日期:2017-11-02 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 王嘉懿, E-mail: cy_hawk(at)163.com

Research on “Resource Curse” Effect and Transmission Mechanism in Resource-based Cities: A Case of 36 Cities in Central China

WANG Jiayi1,†, CUI Nana2   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871
    2. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2017-09-29 Revised:2017-11-02 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
  • Contact: WANG Jiayi, E-mail: cy_hawk(at)163.com

摘要:

在Eviews 8软件中分别采用OLS模型、个体固定效应模型、时间固定效应模型和时间个体双固定效应模型, 对中国中部36个地级资源型城市进行分析, 发现时间个体双固定效应模型解释能力最强。在时间个体双固定效应模型中, 自变量资源依赖度的符号为负且在5%显著性水平上显著, 证明“资源诅咒”效应存在。资源依赖度在1%的显著性水平上对制造业投入的影响为负, 制造业投入在5%的显著性水平上对实际人均GDP增长率的影响为正。经过综合分析可以得出, “资源诅咒”效应的主要传导机制是对制造业的挤出效应。在资源型城市转型发展中, 应重视吸引制造业投资, 降低政府对微观经济领域的干预程度, 构建多元化产业体系, 实现经济社会的可持续发展。

关键词: 资源型城市, 资源诅咒, 传导机制

Abstract:

With Eviews8, using the OLS model, individual fixed effect model, time fixed effect model and individual-time fixed effect model, “resource curse” effect and transmission mechanism are analyzed in 36 resource-based cities in central China. The results show that individual-time fixed effect model is the best. In the individual-time fixed effect model, the regression coefficient of resource dependence is negative and it’s significant at 5% level, which proves that “resource curse” effect really exists. Resource dependence has a negative impact on manufacturing investment at 1% significant level. Manufacturing investment has a positive effect on the actual GDP per capita at 5% significant level. In conclusion, the main transmission mechanism of “resource curse” effect is crowding out effect of manufacturing industry. In the transformation and development of resource-based cities, more attention should be paid to attract manufacturing investment, reduce the government's intervention in the microeconomic field, and build a diversified industrial system to realize the sustainable development of economic society.

Key words: resource-based cities, resource curse, transmission

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